Simulation with Fuzzy Durations

Traditional stochastic discrete event simulation method requires the users to fit the task duration data with an empirical probability function or a theoretical probability density function. This has limited the application of discrete event simulation techniques from research stage to construction practice due to the tedious data fitting tasks required for the construction operation planners lacking of statistical background. On the other hand, usually the activity duration estimated by practitioners contains some kind of vagueness caused by estimator’s subjective judgment. This type of vagueness may be more appropriate to be modeled by fuzzy numbers that can be assessed without data fitting. This paper proposes a new mechanism where fuzzy duration modeled by fuzzy numbers can be used in discrete event simulation. Consequently, the tedious data fitting tasks are eliminated but the uncertainty of task duration is still taken into account.